The Power of Feedback Loops

When historians look back over time, it is clear that many of our large scale natural and man made systems have a cyclical aspect to them. However, it is also becoming evident that there are times when these cycles speed up way beyond what would normally be expected.

This is partially due to a phenomena called "Positive Feedback Loops." We are seeing this happening in the realm of Climate Change and it is requiring the prediction experts to continually change their estimates of how quickly we can expect to see things like the rate of polar ice melt.

One of the stabilizing aspects of the polar ice cap is that the huge expanses of ice reflect the sunlight and keep the temperature stable. As the earth warms and ice melts, it exposes additional water and bare land. Instead of reflecting the suns rays, the water and land absorb the heat and continue to warm, accelerating the melting and adding to the warming process by exposing even more water and land. Because of this effect, we are now hearing that the north pole may be ice-free in as little as five years instead of the 10-15 years scientists were predicting only a year or so ago.

It is fair to expect that this trend will continue to accelerate into the near future and we will need to adjust our estimates and our actions to meet that reality.